Here in the land of Oz (in case you don’t realize it, I live in Australia), we are about to hit election time. The current Prime Minister, John Howard, is so far behind in the polls that it will probably take a miracle to win. But, he has done it before.
One of the dangers he is facing at the moment is that everyone knows the election is looming, in fact unofficial campaigning has started. Herein lies his problem. By the time he calls the election most people will be so sick of the campaigning that they will switch off totally – if they haven’t already. If he goes to the election now, he will lose – no question about it.
The last two elections have been come from behind wins. But in each of those elections there have been major dramas around the world. We had 9/11. We had Iraq and Afghanistan. We had the Bali bombings. These dramas really did help him get re-elected.
One can only think of a couple of reasons why he hasn’t called the election yet. One, he is just hanging on and hoping. Two, he is hoping for another major event that will save him, or three, he is just hanging on long as possible because once the election is called, his political career may well be over.
Number one, he has no hope. Number two, I don’t even think a major drama can save him this time. The people of Australia have come to see through his manipulation of these events come election time. Number three, well it sounds about right – the last gasps.
Having said all this of course, the opposition party needs to be very careful. If they start to feel they are unbeatable, mistakes will happen and I believe the only way John Howard can win this election is if the opposition leader, Kevin Rudd, starts to make major errors.
Somehow, I cant see that happening.
